Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Nassourdine Imavov
31%
69%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
13-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Hawes: 31 sig / 4 TD ·
Imavov: 57 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Nassourdine Imavov
29
Sig strikes landed
29
64
Sig strikes attempted
63
33
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
13-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W1
Nassourdine Imavov
"The Sniper"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—