Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Chris Daukaus
96%
4%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
44
Age
Δ 12y
31
60-18-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Oleinik: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Daukaus: 34 sig / 0 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Chris Daukaus
14
Sig strikes landed
27
32
Sig strikes attempted
56
24
Total strikes landed
34
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
-0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
8%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
60-18-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W2
Chris Daukaus
13-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—