Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Charles Rosa
Darrick Minner
38%
62%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
34
Age
Δ 4y
31
15-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
27-14
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosa: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Minner: 45 sig / 4 TD
Charles Rosa
Darrick Minner
23
Sig strikes landed
32
60
Sig strikes attempted
64
43
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
135s
Control time
424s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
15-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
Blue corner
W1
Darrick Minner
27-14
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—