Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Devonte Smith
Justin Jaynes
64%
36%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 8"
68"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
11-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Smith: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Jaynes: 11 sig / 0 TD
Devonte Smith
Justin Jaynes
37
Sig strikes landed
28
78
Sig strikes attempted
59
43
Total strikes landed
23
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
78s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Devonte Smith
"King Kage"
11-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
L2
Justin Jaynes
"The Guitar Hero"
16-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—