Main
Light Heavyweight
Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mike Rodriguez
Danilo Marques
59%
41%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
11-8
Career record
Δ 17 pp
12-4
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Rodriguez: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Marques: 29 sig / 4 TD
Mike Rodriguez
Danilo Marques
19
Sig strikes landed
23
25
Sig strikes attempted
37
34
Total strikes landed
40
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.6
Takedowns attempted
6.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
106s
Control time
268s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Rodriguez
"Slo Mike"
11-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
Blue corner
W1
Danilo Marques
12-4
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—