Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Clay Guida
39%
61%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
35
Age
Δ 4y
39
25-21
Career record
Δ 8 pp
38-23
L3
Current streak
L2
23
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Guida: 49 sig / 3 TD
Michael Johnson
Clay Guida
43
Sig strikes landed
32
105
Sig strikes attempted
94
58
Total strikes landed
51
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.1
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
6.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
19s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
23 fights · 11-12
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
Blue corner
L2
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
19 fights · 10-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—