Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Manel Kape
72%
28%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
L1
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pantoja: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Kape: 49 sig / 2 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Manel Kape
45
Sig strikes landed
37
92
Sig strikes attempted
86
60
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
Blue corner
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27