Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cory Sandhagen
Frankie Edgar
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 10y
39
19-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-11-1
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sandhagen: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Edgar: 2 sig / 0 TD
Cory Sandhagen
Frankie Edgar
72
Sig strikes landed
59
149
Sig strikes attempted
132
86
Total strikes landed
79
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.5
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
25s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cory Sandhagen
19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
W1
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
20 fights · 12-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—