Prelims1
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Sergey Morozov
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Umar Nurmagomedov
Sergey Morozov
77%
23%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nurmagomedov: 25 sig / 5 TD ·
Morozov: 7 sig / 0 TD
Umar Nurmagomedov
Sergey Morozov
42
Sig strikes landed
33
87
Sig strikes attempted
70
60
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Umar Nurmagomedov
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Sergey Morozov
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32