Back to UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Victoria Leonardo vs Manon Fiorot

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny ·Etihad Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Victoria Leonardo
Manon Fiorot
34% 66%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
31
Age
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Leonardo: 17 sig / 0 TD · Fiorot: 53 sig / 1 TD
Victoria Leonardo
Manon Fiorot
35
Sig strikes landed
42
81
Sig strikes attempted
90
60
Total strikes landed
71
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Victoria Leonardo

"Fury"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Manon Fiorot

"The Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31