Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Omari Akhmedov
Tom Breese
64%
36%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
21-7-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
13-3
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Akhmedov: 25 sig / 2 TD ·
Breese: 1 sig / 0 TD
Omari Akhmedov
Tom Breese
36
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
70
55
Total strikes landed
41
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
175s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
21-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
D
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
W1
Tom Breese
13-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—