Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Tyson Nam
66%
34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
17-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-14-1
L1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Schnell: 85 sig / 0 TD ·
Nam: 58 sig / 0 TD
Matt Schnell
Tyson Nam
46
Sig strikes landed
31
110
Sig strikes attempted
86
49
Total strikes landed
42
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
47s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W2
Tyson Nam
22-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—