Back to UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Main Light Heavyweight

Ike Villanueva vs Vinicius Moreira

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Ike Villanueva
Vinicius Moreira
49% 51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
18-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
9-6
L2
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Villanueva: 24 sig / 0 TD · Moreira: 24 sig / 0 TD
Ike Villanueva
Vinicius Moreira
26
Sig strikes landed
30
42
Sig strikes attempted
67
43
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Ike Villanueva

"Hurricane"
18-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
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Blue corner
L3

Vinicius Moreira

"Mamute"
9-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—