Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Mounir Lazzez
53%
47%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
15-9
Career record
Δ 18 pp
12-3
L1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alves: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Lazzez: 2 sig / 0 TD
Warlley Alves
Mounir Lazzez
36
Sig strikes landed
48
79
Sig strikes attempted
102
62
Total strikes landed
71
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
168s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Warlley Alves
15-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mounir Lazzez
"The Sniper"
12-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—