Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Neil Magny
49%
51%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
33
Age
Δ 0y
34
21-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
32-15
W3
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Chiesa: 24 sig / 4 TD ·
Magny: 12 sig / 1 TD
Michael Chiesa
Neil Magny
27
Sig strikes landed
33
57
Sig strikes attempted
69
51
Total strikes landed
63
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
302s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W3
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
23 fights · 17-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—