Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arman Tsarukyan
Matt Frevola
91%
9%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
24
Age
Δ 6y
31
24-3
Career record
Δ 26 pp
12-6-1
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tsarukyan: 50 sig / 10 TD ·
Frevola: 16 sig / 0 TD
Arman Tsarukyan
Matt Frevola
43
Sig strikes landed
29
99
Sig strikes attempted
80
76
Total strikes landed
44
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.0
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
285s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W2
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
12-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
D
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—