Main
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Ribas
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Amanda Ribas
57%
43%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
34
Age
Δ 6y
27
17-7-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
W4
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rodriguez: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Ribas: 7 sig / 1 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Amanda Ribas
50
Sig strikes landed
50
119
Sig strikes attempted
131
71
Total strikes landed
79
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
86s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marina Rodriguez
17-7-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
W4
Amanda Ribas
14-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—