Prelims1
Middleweight
Brad Tavares vs Antonio Carlos Junior
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Antonio Carlos Junior
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
21-14
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-6
L2
Current streak
L2
18
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Carlos Junior: 34 sig / 1 TD
Brad Tavares
Antonio Carlos Junior
40
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
87
57
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
128s
Control time
256s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
Blue corner
L2
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—