Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Julianna Pena vs Sara McMann
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julianna Pena
Sara McMann
71%
29%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
31
Age
Δ 9y
40
13-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pena: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
McMann: 21 sig / 3 TD
Julianna Pena
Sara McMann
26
Sig strikes landed
22
58
Sig strikes attempted
54
71
Total strikes landed
57
1.8
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.00
Knockdowns
-0.10
204s
Control time
279s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julianna Pena
"The Venezuelan Vixen"
13-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
W1
Sara McMann
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—