Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ricky Simon
Brian Kelleher
81%
19%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
23-7-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
25-16
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Simon: 45 sig / 6 TD ·
Kelleher: 19 sig / 0 TD
Ricky Simon
Brian Kelleher
50
Sig strikes landed
39
109
Sig strikes attempted
95
70
Total strikes landed
52
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ricky Simon
23-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
25-16
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—