Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Ian Heinisch
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
21-12
Career record
Δ 11 pp
15-5
L3
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gastelum: 38 sig / 6 TD ·
Heinisch: 27 sig / 1 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Ian Heinisch
53
Sig strikes landed
42
112
Sig strikes attempted
95
63
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
98s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Kelvin Gastelum
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
17 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ian Heinisch
"The Hurricane"
15-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—