Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Maki Pitolo
Julian Marquez
64%
36%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
13-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
9-7
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pitolo: 32 sig / 5 TD ·
Marquez: 41 sig / 0 TD
Maki Pitolo
Julian Marquez
43
Sig strikes landed
38
101
Sig strikes attempted
99
59
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Maki Pitolo
"Coconut Bombz"
13-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
9-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—