Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Dhiego Lima
81%
19%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
25-5
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-9
W3
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Muhammad: 129 sig / 1 TD ·
Lima: 69 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Dhiego Lima
58
Sig strikes landed
39
121
Sig strikes attempted
105
80
Total strikes landed
43
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
215s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
Blue corner
W3
Dhiego Lima
18-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—