Back to UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Sarah Moras vs Vanessa Melo

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Sarah Moras
Vanessa Melo
46% 54%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
6-9
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-9
L1
Current streak
L3
8
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moras: 44 sig / 0 TD · Melo: 56 sig / 0 TD
Sarah Moras
Vanessa Melo
41
Sig strikes landed
46
105
Sig strikes attempted
112
62
Total strikes landed
70
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sarah Moras

"Cheesecake"
6-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
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W UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
L3

Vanessa Melo

11-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—