Back to UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Prelims1 Featherweight

Jacob Kilburn vs Austin Lingo

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar ·Etihad Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jacob Kilburn
Austin Lingo
52% 48%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
8-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
9-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kilburn: 64 sig / 1 TD · Lingo: 95 sig / 1 TD
Jacob Kilburn
Austin Lingo
37
Sig strikes landed
25
67
Sig strikes attempted
64
50
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jacob Kilburn

"The Killer"
8-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
L1

Austin Lingo

"Lights Out"
9-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
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