Back to UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Main Middleweight

Joaquin Buckley vs Alessio Di Chirico

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joaquin Buckley
Alessio Di Chirico
82% 18%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
22-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-8
W2
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Buckley: 3 sig / 0 TD · Di Chirico: 12 sig / 0 TD
Joaquin Buckley
Alessio Di Chirico
44
Sig strikes landed
36
107
Sig strikes attempted
93
53
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Joaquin Buckley

"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
Blue corner
L3

Alessio Di Chirico

"Manzo"
13-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—