Main
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Li Jingliang
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Li Jingliang
81%
19%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 2y
33
32-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
19-10
W7
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ponzinibbio: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Jingliang: 21 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Li Jingliang
61
Sig strikes landed
68
148
Sig strikes attempted
150
62
Total strikes landed
68
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
22s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
32-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Li Jingliang
"The Leech"
19-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
L
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—