Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Matt Brown
83%
17%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
37
Age
Δ 3y
40
33-14
Career record
Δ 14 pp
26-20
W1
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Condit: 39 sig / 2 TD ·
Brown: 28 sig / 1 TD
Carlos Condit
Matt Brown
63
Sig strikes landed
54
133
Sig strikes attempted
104
82
Total strikes landed
64
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
33-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 7-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
21 fights · 11-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—