Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Calvin Kattar
73%
27%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
27-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-10
L2
Current streak
W2
23
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 445 sig / 0 TD ·
Kattar: 133 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Calvin Kattar
351
Sig strikes landed
124
535
Sig strikes attempted
241
299
Total strikes landed
118
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
34s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
23 fights · 17-6
Last 5
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
W2
Calvin Kattar
24-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—