Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marlon Moraes
Rob Font
57%
43%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
23-11-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-10
L1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moraes: 9 sig / 2 TD ·
Font: 30 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Moraes
Rob Font
40
Sig strikes landed
50
96
Sig strikes attempted
120
42
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
41s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
Blue corner
W2
Rob Font
23-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—