Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Greg Hardy
82%
18%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
28-11
Career record
Δ 10 pp
8-5
W3
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Tybura: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Hardy: 50 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Greg Hardy
54
Sig strikes landed
37
97
Sig strikes attempted
92
71
Total strikes landed
46
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
201s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W2
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
8-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—