Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington vs Sam Hughes
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Sam Hughes
58%
42%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
W1
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Pennington: 52 sig / 1 TD ·
Hughes: 20 sig / 0 TD
Tecia Pennington
Sam Hughes
60
Sig strikes landed
56
107
Sig strikes attempted
116
85
Total strikes landed
82
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
232s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
Blue corner
Sam Hughes
"Sampage"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29