Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Hooper
Peter Barrett
87%
13%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
21
Age
Δ 13y
34
16-6-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Hooper: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Barrett: 48 sig / 0 TD
Chase Hooper
Peter Barrett
42
Sig strikes landed
34
92
Sig strikes attempted
75
66
Total strikes landed
56
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
239s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
16-6-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
L1
Peter Barrett
"Slippery"
11-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—