Main
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Virna Jandiroba
44%
56%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
28
Age
Δ 5y
32
17-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
24-4
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dern: 82 sig / 0 TD ·
Jandiroba: 63 sig / 1 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Virna Jandiroba
30
Sig strikes landed
29
76
Sig strikes attempted
62
50
Total strikes landed
55
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
106s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W2
Virna Jandiroba
"Carcara"
24-4
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—