Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Charles Oliveira
25%
75%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
26-12
Career record
Δ 9 pp
38-11
L1
Current streak
W7
17
UFC fights in our DB
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ferguson: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 41 sig / 3 TD
Tony Ferguson
Charles Oliveira
45
Sig strikes landed
48
87
Sig strikes attempted
92
57
Total strikes landed
60
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
60s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
17 fights · 15-2
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W7
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
26 fights · 17-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—