Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Jacare Souza
76%
24%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 9"
72"
28
Age
Δ 13y
41
30-15
Career record
Δ 4 pp
26-11
W4
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Holland: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Souza: 2 sig / 2 TD
Kevin Holland
Jacare Souza
49
Sig strikes landed
27
97
Sig strikes attempted
58
84
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
230s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
L2
Jacare Souza
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—