Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Daniel Pineda
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
32-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
29-17
W1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Swanson: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Pineda: 21 sig / 1 TD
Cub Swanson
Daniel Pineda
52
Sig strikes landed
52
100
Sig strikes attempted
105
75
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
78s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
29-17
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—