Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Renato Moicano
Rafael Fiziev
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
22-7-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-5
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moicano: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Fiziev: 21 sig / 0 TD
Renato Moicano
Rafael Fiziev
54
Sig strikes landed
50
117
Sig strikes attempted
102
68
Total strikes landed
64
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
Blue corner
W2
Rafael Fiziev
"Ataman"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—