Prelims1
Bantamweight
Louis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Jose Quinonez
68%
32%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
17-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Smolka: 59 sig / 3 TD ·
Quinonez: 43 sig / 2 TD
Louis Smolka
Jose Quinonez
49
Sig strikes landed
41
93
Sig strikes attempted
86
65
Total strikes landed
54
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
177s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
L1
Jose Quinonez
"Teco"
9-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—