Prelims1
Featherweight
Ilia Topuria vs Damon Jackson
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ilia Topuria
Damon Jackson
75%
25%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
18-0
Career record
Δ 27 pp
24-8-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Topuria: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Jackson: 16 sig / 0 TD
Ilia Topuria
Damon Jackson
23
Sig strikes landed
13
46
Sig strikes attempted
37
59
Total strikes landed
31
3.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
407s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
56%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
W1
Damon Jackson
"The Leech"
24-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 1-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
D
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—