Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Wiman
Jordan Leavitt
29%
71%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
37
Age
Δ 12y
26
L2
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wiman: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Leavitt: 1 sig / 1 TD
Matt Wiman
Jordan Leavitt
36
Sig strikes landed
40
69
Sig strikes attempted
76
53
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
192s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Wiman
16-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
Jordan Leavitt
"The Monkey King"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26