Main
Lightweight
Gabriel Benitez vs Justin Jaynes
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gabriel Benitez
Justin Jaynes
59%
41%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
23-14
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-9
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Benitez: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Jaynes: 22 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Benitez
Justin Jaynes
44
Sig strikes landed
37
98
Sig strikes attempted
89
49
Total strikes landed
45
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
37s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gabriel Benitez
"Moggly"
23-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
Blue corner
L1
Justin Jaynes
"The Guitar Hero"
16-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—