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Ovince Saint Preux vs Jamahal Hill

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Ovince Saint Preux
Jamahal Hill
51% 49%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
28-18
Career record
Δ 14 pp
12-4
W1
Current streak
W1
22
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Saint Preux: 36 sig / 0 TD · Hill: 68 sig / 0 TD
Ovince Saint Preux
Jamahal Hill
58
Sig strikes landed
65
118
Sig strikes attempted
115
65
Total strikes landed
76
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
34s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ovince Saint Preux

28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database 22 fights · 13-9
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
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L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
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L UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
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Blue corner
W1

Jamahal Hill

"Sweet Dreams"
12-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
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