Prelims1
Heavyweight
Gian Villante vs Jake Collier
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gian Villante
Jake Collier
52%
48%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
17-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-11
L2
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Villante: 80 sig / 0 TD ·
Collier: 123 sig / 0 TD
Gian Villante
Jake Collier
60
Sig strikes landed
56
120
Sig strikes attempted
133
73
Total strikes landed
64
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gian Villante
17-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 7-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
L1
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—