Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Spike Carlyle
Bill Algeo
61%
39%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
9-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-10
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carlyle: 23 sig / 4 TD ·
Algeo: 70 sig / 1 TD
Spike Carlyle
Bill Algeo
37
Sig strikes landed
40
81
Sig strikes attempted
81
66
Total strikes landed
67
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
10.2
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
248s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Spike Carlyle
"Alpha Ginger"
9-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Bill Algeo
"Senor Perfecto"
18-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—