Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Parisian
Parker Porter
70%
30%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
31
Age
Δ 4y
36
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Parisian: 114 sig / 0 TD ·
Porter: 126 sig / 2 TD
Josh Parisian
Parker Porter
36
Sig strikes landed
24
70
Sig strikes attempted
54
52
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Parisian
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L1
Parker Porter
14-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
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