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Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Gina Mazany vs Rachael Ostovich

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Gina Mazany
Rachael Ostovich
58% 42%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
62"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
7-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
4-7
L3
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Mazany: 72 sig / 7 TD · Ostovich: 41 sig / 0 TD
Gina Mazany
Rachael Ostovich
33
Sig strikes landed
26
73
Sig strikes attempted
37
59
Total strikes landed
47
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
185s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
55%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Gina Mazany

"Danger"
7-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
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W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
L2

Rachael Ostovich

4-7
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—