Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Martin Day
Anderson Dos Santos
44%
56%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
8-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
21-10
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Day: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Dos Santos: 11 sig / 1 TD
Martin Day
Anderson Dos Santos
51
Sig strikes landed
58
113
Sig strikes attempted
135
59
Total strikes landed
83
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.7
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
42s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Martin Day
"The Spartan"
8-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
Blue corner
L2
Anderson Dos Santos
"Berinja"
21-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—