Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Miguel Baeza
Takashi Sato
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
11-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Baeza: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Sato: 15 sig / 0 TD
Miguel Baeza
Takashi Sato
29
Sig strikes landed
28
66
Sig strikes attempted
64
33
Total strikes landed
36
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
19s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Miguel Baeza
"Caramel Thunder"
11-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
W1
Takashi Sato
"Ten"
17-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—