Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Devin Clark
78%
22%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
31
38-23
Career record
Δ 0 pp
15-9
L2
Current streak
W2
14
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smith: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Clark: 1 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Smith
Devin Clark
42
Sig strikes landed
42
85
Sig strikes attempted
68
52
Total strikes landed
60
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
50s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
Blue corner
W2
Devin Clark
"Brown Bear"
15-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—